UAE: Dealing With Terror!

I came across a very interesting article published online recently on the Oxford Business Group website http://www.oxfordbusinessgroup.com/

If you haven’t read it already, here is the complete article:

“ABU DHABI: Great efforts are being made by the UAE government to distance itself in the world's eyes from the problems that afflict the rest of the region. As the country, and in particular Dubai, seeks to market itself as a regional business centre and attract companies and their employees from across the globe, political stability and security are essential components of the UAE brand.

Political stability is indisputable. Despite speculation that on Sheikh Zayed's death Dubai might bid for the presidency, or that one or other of Zayed's sons might attempt to displace Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khalifa, in the event the smooth succession in November 2004 proved a model for changing governments worldwide. The partnership between Abu Dhabi and Dubai has rarely looked stronger, and the sons of Zayed appear to be working in close harmony with one another to bring a new wave of development to Abu Dhabi.

The question of security, however, remains a matter for concern. The UAE remains the only country on the Arabian Peninsula, and one of the few in the Arab world as a whole, that has never suffered violence from the plethora of militant Islamic organisations that plague the region. This has certainly been a remarkable asset as the country presents itself to the world and opens its doors to the international economy. Dubai's unprecedented growth, for example, has been heavily reliant on its attractiveness to the foreign companies that use its free zones, and its future prospects are dependent on foreigners filling the glut of expensive real estate development that is literally rising from the sea off the emirate's shore.

But some analysts fear a well-placed explosion in Dubai could bring the whole fragile house of cards tumbling down. Were Dubai suddenly to seem a little more dangerous, and more similar to the Arabian Peninsula of people's nightmares, would the brand they have built be damaged beyond repair? Would the foreign investors they have attracted up and leave, and would those that are projected to arrive in the next decade stay away?

The UAE's secret police and security services tend to be both pervasive and focused, and have been remarkably effective at keeping the UAE off the list of countries that have suffered attacks. Recently, they have been responsible for capturing several al-Qaida commanders, including in August 2004 Qari Saifullah Akhtar, a Pakistani who used to run one of the training camps in Afghanistan and has been linked to two assassination attempts against President Musharraf, and also al-Qaida's Gulf operations chief, Abdel-Rahim al-Nashiri, who was captured in late 2002.

The government has gone to great lengths to ensure that its security apparatus is very discreet. Visitors do not see the armed forces or police on every street corner and are not subjected to constant reminders of threat and insecurity. This is a deliberate strategy to persuade visitors that the UAE is safe and to encourage the confidence that is so essential to the economic miracle being driven by Dubai. The presence of these senior al-Qaida figures on Emirati soil is of concern, however, and while the arrest of these and others is a tribute to the local security services, it may also have made the UAE a target.

The issue has come to the fore in recent weeks after a warning was posted on an Islamist website, admonishing the UAE government for allowing US naval vessels to use Dubai's ports and for its pro-US policies. The posting on the al-Sakifah site on July 19 warned the UAE to remove the US ambassador and other US citizens within 10 days or face an attack. If you refuse to do this, we ask God to settle the matter or we will settle it with our own hands, it said.

While al-Sakifah is not one of the more prominent semi-official al-Qaida mouthpieces, such as the al-Ansar and al-Neda websites, it is known as a forum for Islamists and has been used by al-Qaida in the past. Security experts cannot verify the authenticity of this particular statement, but say every threat must be taken seriously.

Although there has been some insurgent activity in some Gulf countries over the past year, al-Qaida has not yet pulled off a spectacular on the peninsula to discourage the ruling families from supporting the US, said one expert to OBG. While al-Qaida's principle focus is the US, there have been many attacks on its allies since September 11, 2001, designed to evaporate support for the US. An attack on what bin Laden and his ilk see as the apostate regimes on the peninsula could be timely, he said.

Opinions are mixed over the damage an attack would do to the UAE economy. Much depends on the selected target. The worst case scenario would be an attack on a soft target such as one of Dubai's hotels, analysts say. This kind of tactic has been used to devastating effect in Egypt and elsewhere more than once. Some analysts see Dubai as more vulnerable even than Egypt, since tourism and real estate development are the principal drivers of its latest economic boom, and because of the sheer scale and cost of current development. The over-exposure of current growth to these sectors means that any significant or, worse, sustained, down-turn in numbers could devastate the emirate's economy.

Nonetheless, more optimistic analysts say that the emirate's economy is more robust and would survive a terrorist incident. Many large international firms have established regional offices in Dubai's free zones, and the cost of re-locating would outweigh the perceived risk after a single attack. Moreover, to where would they move? Nowhere in the Middle East can be considered entirely safe, and it would take a far more sustained attack to outweigh the advantages Dubai offers in terms of location, life-style and economic and social openness, they say.

These analysts also point out that the tourism industry has subsequently recovered after each attack in Egypt and elsewhere, and that the tourist industry in Dubai would also recover quickly because of the facilities on offer. It might take a great deal of effort to persuade people that the Dubai brand is not tarnished, but a single attack would not damage that brand irrevocably. The security services' track record so far makes a more sustained attack unlikely.

One way to ensure the economy is more robust in the face of potential terrorist attack is to ensure that the 80% expatriate community takes more of a stake in the country. People who own nothing are far more mobile than those that have capital invested, or who own property, in a country. Allowing foreigners to own real estate and invest more heavily in UAE companies may anchor the transient expatriate population that is so essential to the functioning of the local economy. In the event of increased threat, people would be less likely to leave, making the UAE less vulnerable and the economy less fragile.”